A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. ~Mark Twain

As a supporter of most things liberal, let me start off my first column in months by making the case for why I believe the next president might be a Republican.

All of the progressive leaning voters who have been salivating over a possible Obama or Clinton (I still can’t figure out why Hillary has people salivating, but that’s another story) Presidency and have all but anointed the next leader of the free world a Democrat, should be very worried for one reason: Rudy Giuliani.

After two seemingly endless terms of George Bush screwing up virtually everything he touches, the prevailing wisdom is 1) the public will not vote another Republican into office in 2008 and 2) Giuliani won’t survive the Republican primaries because he’s pro-choice.

The fact is, Americans who consider themselves conservative outnumber liberals 33% to 18%, while 40% of the country is moderate (the remaining 9% being undecided). So a Republican really only needs to act like he’s different than George Bush, and people will still be apt to vote for him. While Giuliani certainly will lose some of Bush’s support from the religious right because of his three marriages, as well as his pro-choice and pro-gay stances, he can more than make up for those losses with moderates who will be drawn to him exactly because of those issues. People forget that in most states independent voters can vote in any primary. All of the independents who might not normally vote Republican might be drawn, at least in the primaries, to vote for Giuliani.

The other side of Giuliani will be appealing to the true fiscal conservatives who feel like they’ve been pushed aside in the current Republican Party. As mayor of NYC, Rudy turned a multi-billion dollar deficit into a surplus, while at the same time cutting taxes. He was also the prosecutor who put half of the New York mafia behind bars and cut NYC’s murder rate by 70%. Smaller government, smart with money, and tough on crime: an old school Republican’s dream.

This is only where the trouble starts for the Democrats. Every time a question comes up about being a leader, Giuliani can point to the fact that he was arguably the best mayor in the history of one of the busiest cities in the world, and he can do it by pointing to liberal issues. He credits gun control as the main reason crime went down, and while he was pro choice, abortions went down and adoptions went up when he was in office.

Granted, Barak Obama has consistently been on the right side of issues for the last four years, and has the potential to be great president. He opposed the Iraq War from the start, and has become a distinct voice in the fight on global warming and Congressional ethics. He has my full support. But at the same time, all he has to stand on are ideas, while Giuliani can stand on action. He is the only one who has that indisputable executive experience. Throw in Giuliani’s heroic role in 9/11 and Democrats will have a tough time convincing a majority of the country not to vote for him.

All of these positives on Guiliani’s record, however, do not obscure the fact that he still will pander to the far right to secure his election. He has pledged to nominate conservative justices that could potentially overturn Roe v. Wade, he has supported the Iraq War, and he has consistently stood up for President Bush even when it’s chic to criticize him.

Can he downplay these qualities, while at the same time highlight others to bring moderates over to his side? It’s a question that we will see played out over the next 12 months, but I, for one, am worried.

 

Trevor Timm is a Blast Magazine staff writer